The betting board is stacked this Sunday, with NFL Week 3 kicking into gear and MLB teams fighting for playoff positions. For bettors, that means plenty of options, but also plenty of traps. Before locking in your slips, it’s worth weighing the most important factors that shape outcomes and value. Here’s a look at five things to consider today, followed by some of the top matchups and betting angles.

1. Team news and injuries

Injuries often swing betting lines more than anything else. For instance, the New York Jets remain without Justin Fields, leaving Tyrod Taylor under center against Tampa Bay. In Washington, Marcus Mariota replaces the injured Jayden Daniels for the Commanders’ clash with the Raiders. These changes not only affect spreads but also dictate totals, especially when backup quarterbacks are involved.

Also Read: NFL Week 3 injury report: Key absences, betting angles and fantasy impact

2. Recent form and momentum

Momentum matters in both football and baseball. The Cleveland Guardians enter today on a 10-game winning streak, while the Minnesota Twins have struggled to keep pace in the division. In the NFL, the Buccaneers are 2-0, while the Jets are yet to register a win. Trends like these help bettors separate teams finding rhythm from those still searching for answers.

3. Market movement and odds shifts

Lines move quickly on Sundays. The Buccaneers opened as moderate favorites but have seen steady moneyline support, while totals in several games, including Jets vs Buccaneers, have ticked downward toward the under. In MLB, Guardians run line odds shortened overnight as sharp bettors leaned toward the in-form Cleveland side. Watching these moves helps identify where money is flowing.

Also read: 5 factors to consider before choosing your best bets today

4. Head-to-head records

Some matchups follow familiar scripts. The Yankees and Orioles often play tight, low-scoring games in September, and with today’s starting pitchers, the under is in play again. In the NFL, the Giants have historically struggled against the Chiefs, but Kansas City’s injury-hit receiving corps could make this meeting different. Past records shouldn’t be the only factor, but they can reveal patterns worth noting.

5. Weather and external conditions

September baseball often comes with cooler evenings, which can keep scoring down. NFL games in the early window appear clear, though wind at MetLife Stadium could influence totals when the Giants host Kansas City later tonight. Always double-check weather before betting overs in outdoor games.

Today’s top betting angles for September 21, 2025

With those five factors in mind, here are some of the sharper plays across today’s NFL and MLB schedule.

NFL Week 3 best bets

• New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  The Jets are without Justin Fields, and Taylor is unlikely to spark the offense against a solid Bucs defense. Tampa Bay should control this one.
  Betting angle: Buccaneers moneyline; Under 43.5 total points.
• Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders
  Mariota takes over at quarterback for Washington. While not as dynamic as Daniels, he offers experience and mobility. The Raiders’ defense could struggle on the road.
  Betting angle: Commanders –3 spread; consider first-half under.
• Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Giants (SNF)
  The Chiefs remain favorites, but missing key receivers levels the matchup. The Giants, at home and coming off a strong passing performance, are live underdogs.
  Betting angle: Giants +6; lean Over 44.5 on game total.

MLB best bets

• Yankees vs Orioles
  With Bradish and Schlittler on the mound, runs could be scarce. Recent head-to-head trends also lean low-scoring.
  Betting angle: Under 8.5 total runs.
• Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins
  The Guardians’ win streak and Cantillo’s recent form make them the side to back.
  Betting angle: Guardians –1.5 run line.
• Player prop – Eugenio Suárez (Mariners)
  Suárez has been finding power at the plate and faces a favorable matchup today.
  Betting angle: Suárez to hit a home run.

Sunday offers plenty of betting opportunities across sports, but discipline is key. By focusing on injuries, form, market shifts, matchups, and conditions, bettors can find value in both NFL Week 3 and MLB’s stretch run. From Tampa Bay’s strong position against the Jets to Cleveland’s dominance in baseball, today’s card rewards careful analysis.