In Major League Baseball (MLB), underdogs often surprise fans and bettors alike. Unlike other sports, baseball games can be unpredictable, with weaker teams regularly pulling off wins against favourites. For bettors, this creates opportunities to find value in the odds. This guide looks at the best strategies for betting on underdogs in MLB, helping you understand when and how to take advantage of these bets.
1. Understand the nature of baseball
Baseball is a low-scoring game compared to basketball or football. A single swing or pitching change can alter the outcome, which means favourites don’t always dominate. Because of this, underdogs win more often in MLB than in many other sports, making them attractive for bettors.
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2. Study pitching matchups
Pitchers play the biggest role in determining a team’s chance of winning.
- Starting pitcher: A strong starter for an underdog can level the field against a favourite.
- Bullpen strength: Late-game relievers often decide outcomes, so check bullpen performance before betting.
Tip: If an underdog has an ace starting pitcher while the favourite uses a weaker rotation piece, the underdog bet can offer great value.
3. Look for value in home underdogs
Home-field advantage matters in baseball. Travel fatigue, familiarity with the ballpark, and crowd support often help underdogs at home. Historically, home underdogs in MLB cover at higher rates than road underdogs, making them safer plays.
4. Analyse recent form and situational factors
Underdogs sometimes gain an edge from short-term trends:
- Hot batting streaks by key hitters
- Opponents on a long road trip or playing back-to-back games
- Injuries to a favourite’s star player
Looking beyond season-long stats and focusing on recent form can highlight hidden opportunities.
5. Manage bankroll and use selective betting
Betting on underdogs can bring higher payouts, but also more losses. To manage risk:
- Bet smaller units compared to favourites
- Avoid chasing losses
- Be selective — not every underdog offers value
Over the long run, disciplined bankroll management keeps you in the game.
6. Use advanced stats to find hidden edges
Traditional stats like batting averages don’t always tell the full story. Advanced metrics such as wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus), FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) help spot underdogs who are performing better than their records suggest.
Betting on underdogs in MLB can be profitable if approached with strategy and patience. By focusing on pitching matchups, home advantage, situational factors, and advanced stats, bettors can find real value where casual fans often overlook it. Remember, the key is not betting every underdog, but recognising when the odds truly swing in your favour.
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FAQs
1. Do underdogs win often in MLB?
Yes. Compared to many other sports, underdogs win a higher percentage of games in MLB, making them worth considering for value bets.
2. Is betting on home underdogs safer?
Home underdogs tend to perform better than away underdogs due to ballpark familiarity and reduced travel fatigue.
3. How do pitchers affect underdog betting?
Starting pitchers and bullpen depth are often the deciding factors in whether an underdog can upset a favourite.
4. Should I bet on every underdog in MLB?
No. The best strategy is to be selective, focusing on underdogs with strong pitchers, favourable matchups, or recent hot streaks.
5. What’s the main risk of betting underdogs?
Underdogs lose more often than favourites, so without proper bankroll management, it’s easy to chase losses and overspend.
