In baseball, a run line bet is the equivalent of a point spread in other sports. Instead of simply picking who wins, the sportsbook adds or subtracts runs to balance the matchup. The most common run line is -1.5 runs for the favorite and +1.5 runs for the underdog.
This means:
- If you bet on the favorite (-1.5), they must win by at least 2 runs for your bet to win.
- If you bet on the underdog (+1.5), they can either win outright or lose by no more than 1 run for your bet to cash.
Why do sportsbooks use the run line?
Unlike football or basketball, baseball games are often low-scoring and close. A run line adds balance, creating more even odds. Instead of heavy moneyline prices (like -200 or -300), the run line offers bettors near-even payouts.
For example:
- Yankees -200 (moneyline)
- Yankees -1.5 (+110) (run line)
Here, betting the run line gives better odds but requires a 2-run win.
When to use a run line bet
Run lines are popular when:
- Backing strong favorites: Betting a big favorite straight up can be expensive. The run line offers a cheaper option.
- Expecting a close game: Taking an underdog at +1.5 runs gives a cushion in tight contests.
- Targeting specific matchups: Pitching matchups, bullpen strength, and ballpark factors can make run lines attractive.
Also Read: Best strategies for betting on underdogs in MLB
Example of a run line bet
If the Dodgers are -1.5 (+120) against the Giants, you’ll need the Dodgers to win by 2 or more runs. If the final score is:
- Dodgers 5, Giants 2 → Bet wins
- Dodgers 4, Giants 3 → Bet loses
- Giants win → Bet loses
If instead you took the Giants +1.5 (-140), then:
- Dodgers 4, Giants 3 → Bet wins
- Giants 3, Dodgers 2 → Bet wins
- Dodgers 5, Giants 2 → Bet loses
Tips for betting the run line
- Check pitching matchups: A strong starter can make a big difference in covering -1.5.
- Home teams and run lines: Home favorites can be riskier since they might not bat in the 9th inning if already leading.
- Underdog value: A +1.5 run line often gives good protection in low-scoring games.
Run line bets in baseball give US bettors an exciting alternative to moneyline betting. They’re useful for balancing heavy favorites or gaining an edge on underdogs, especially when you understand pitching matchups and game context.
Also read: Rising Scams in the Booming Online Gambling Sector
FAQs on run line bets in baseball
1. What does -1.5 mean in a run line bet?
It means the favorite must win by at least 2 runs for the bet to cash.
2. What does +1.5 mean in a run line bet?
It means the underdog can lose by just 1 run or win outright, and the bet wins.
3. Is betting the run line better than moneyline?
It depends. Run lines give better odds on favorites and protection on underdogs, but add risk compared to the moneyline.
4. Can run lines be more than 1.5 runs?
Yes. Alternative run lines (+2.5, -2.5) are sometimes offered for higher payouts or more protection.
5. Do extra innings count in run line bets?
Yes. The full game score, including extra innings, is used to settle run line wagers.
