Categories: News & Updates

Lord’s Showdown: England vs. India 3rd Test Winning Probability and Odds Prediction—July 2025

In the pivotal third Test of the 2025–27 WTC cycle, India and England square off at Lord’s. India hopes that Bumrah’s comeback and Gill’s explosive play will help them defeat England’s redesigned pace attack in a hotly contested match.

Match Overview

DateTime (ET)VenueTeamsLeague
July 10, 2025 (Thursday)07:00 ETLord’s Cricket Ground, London, EnglandEngland vs. IndiaICC World Test Championship (2025-2027)

Intro Content

On Thursday, July 10, 2025, the Indian cricket team will face England at Lord’s Cricket Ground in London. First ball is scheduled for 07:00 ET. England are slightly favored with a moneyline of 1.00, while India are listed at 1.60. England is also the run-line favorite (–1.5, 1.90), and the game’s over/under is set at 600.5 total runs.


ENG vs. IND Team Previews

England

Following their thrilling victory over the visitors in the opening Test match, England walked into Birmingham full of confidence. But after that, things swiftly went south, and the squad wasted its early series advantage.

England will have a lot of work to do before this match begins because they were out-batted and out-bowled in the second Test match. Its bowling unit seems to have the largest gap. In only two innings, India’s formidable batting lineup amassed over 1000 runs while playing with the inexperienced seamers Josh Tongue and Brydon Carse.

England will almost certainly bring in Jofra Archer to strengthen its assault. Following his recuperation from a hamstring injury, Gus Atkinson has also been added to the squad and may return. Shoaib Bashir, who took five wickets in the last game, will continue to be in the eleven.

It seems doubtful that the batting order will be altered. But since Jamie Smith and Harry Brook carried a lot of the burden in Birmingham, they will need their top order to do better.

India

The Indian team levelled the series with a clinical effort in the second game from the very beginning. They now intend to maintain the same momentum and assume the lead in this situation.

Shubman Gill has batted wonderfully and led his side from the front, especially in the last game when he amassed 430 runs, the second-highest total in Test cricket history. At different points in time, KL Rahul and his deputy Rishabh Pant have provided him with sufficient assistance.

Together, Yashasvi Jaiswal and Ravindra Jadeja form a potent batting combination. Karun Nair could be eliminated here to create room for Sai Sudharsan because he hasn’t been able to make the most of his comeback. One of the highlights of the visit thus far has been India’s bowling, especially that of Akash Deep.

Bumrah would definitely be a huge advantage for the visitors if India decides to bench Prasidh Krishna for this match. Mohammed Siraj is likely to keep his spot since he has bowled well as well.


Game Odds & Lines

Captain Gill salutes the pavilion after surpassing Virat Kohli’s previous record, carving his name into Test history with 269.
Courtesy: https://www.skysports.com/
Bet TypeOdds
MoneylineIndia: 1.60 • England: 1.00
Run LineIndia +1.5: 1.90 • England –1.5: 1.90
Total Runs (O/U)Over 600.5: 1.85 • Under 600.5: 1.95

Key Bowlers

TeamKey Players & Bowling Unit Status
IndiaJasprit Bumrah returns; spin-heavy balance
EnglandJofra Archer back; Gus Atkinson included in pace trio

ENG vs. IND Match Prediction: 3rd Test Probable XIs

England Playing 11:

Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Gus Atkinson, Jofra Archer, Chris Woakes, Shoaib Bashir

India Playing 11:

KL Rahul, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Sai Sudarshan, Shubman Gill (c), Rishabh Pant (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Shardul Thakur, Washington Sundar, Akash Deep, Mohammed Siraj, Jasprit Bumrah


Weather & Pitch Conditions

  • Forecast: Cloudy with partial sunshine, temperature around 68°F
  • Wind: Gentle breeze from southwest at 7 mph
  • Humidity: Approximately 65%
  • Pitch Factor: Seam-friendly surface early, improving for batting as the match progresses. Slight edge to fast bowlers early on.

Last 3 Games Record (Since 2025)

TeamLast 3 Test Matches
India1 Win against ENG – 2 Losses against AUS & ENG
England2 Wins against ZIM & IND – 1 Loss against IND

Head-to-Head Record at Lord’s

Courtesy: https://www.skysports.com/
Matches PlayedEngland WinsIndia WinsDraws
191234

Key Insights & Betting Trends

  • India have won 3 of their last 4 Tests at Lord’s
  • England have a 12-3 win-loss record vs India at Lord’s
  • Jasprit Bumrah leads India’s pace return
  • England’s new-ball combo of Archer and Atkinson could be decisive
  • Shubman Gill is in top form with 3 centuries in last 3 matches

Expert Picks & Recommended Bets

  • Moneyline: India @ 1.60
  • Run Line: India +1.5 @ 1.90
  • Total Runs: Under 600.5 @ 1.95

England vs. India Live-streaming and Broadcast

This match can be watched live on the JioHotstar App, Star Sports Network, and Sky Sports (U.K.)


Predicted Outcome

England’s Ben Duckett celebrates his century on day five of the first cricket test match between England and India at Headingley cricket ground in Leeds, northern England on June 24, 2025.
Courtesy: https://www.skysports.com/

With both teams coming in after mixed recent results, this Test will be shaped largely by the opening two sessions. England’s home advantage and pace attack are strong, but India’s resilience away from home—especially with Bumrah back and Gill in form—tips the balance slightly in their favor. Expect a low-scoring contest with India edging past England in a close finish at Lord’s.

Courtesy: https://www.espncricinfo.com/, https://www.firstpost.com/firstcricket/, https://m.cricbuzz.com/, https://www.skysports.com/


India and England face off at Lord’s in a high-stakes Test showdown. With big names and bold plays expected, now’s the time to back your picks.

tech@triplew.in

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