The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Jacksonville for what could be a defining Week 5 clash. After a shaky 0–2 start, Kansas City’s convincing win over Baltimore, powered by the return of wide receiver Xavier Worthy, suggests Patrick Mahomes and company may be back in business. But the Chiefs face a tricky test against a rising Jaguars side that has quietly put together a 3–1 record and already claimed an impressive win over San Francisco.
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, total 46) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs’ betting reputation has long kept them in the market’s elite range. For most of Mahomes’ career, oddsmakers have rated Kansas City in the high-60s to mid-70s on a 100-point scale. That status, while flattering, has also made them a difficult team to back consistently against the spread.
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Following their slow start, those market ratings dropped into the 50s — low enough that K.C. even entered one game as a home underdog. A resounding victory over Baltimore has since restored confidence, and this -3.5 spread suggests the market now views the Chiefs closer to their historic highs.
Jacksonville, by contrast, entered the season with a modest win total line of 7.5. Despite their 3–1 start, the market still rates them only slightly above average. But the Jaguars’ underlying metrics tell a different story. According to PFF’s all-around team grades, Jacksonville ranks ninth in the NFL compared to Kansas City’s 12th. Advanced efficiency stats (EPA per play, excluding garbage time) also place the Jaguars among the league’s top seven.
That data supports the view that Jacksonville may still be undervalued, making Jaguars +3.5 an appealing wager for bettors expecting a close game or potential upset.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Player props
Kareem Hunt under 8.5 rush attempts (-110)
Kansas City continues to search for consistency in the backfield. Kareem Hunt has 36 carries this season but just one run longer than 10 yards. Averaging 3.2 yards per attempt and consistently losing snaps to Isiah Pacheco, Hunt’s volume looks vulnerable. Rookie Brashard Smith’s growing involvement (19 snaps last week) could further limit Hunt’s touches. In a tighter game script, expect Mahomes to lean on the passing attack — making the under a smart play.
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Xavier Worthy over 58.5 total yards (-115)
Worthy’s return has clearly rejuvenated the Chiefs’ offense. He logged 121 total yards last week despite playing only 64% of offensive snaps. With his role likely to expand, he should comfortably clear this total if Kansas City’s attack keeps rolling.
Travis Hunter over 28.5 total yards (-110)
Used increasingly as an offensive weapon, Hunter looks set for an uptick in designed plays on Monday night. His previous yardage lines ranged from 33.5 to 48.5, making this number a clear discount. With Jacksonville likely to scheme ways to showcase their No. 2 overall pick, over 28.5 yards has value.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Xavier Worthy (+150)
Mahomes threw four touchdowns last week, but none went to Worthy. With an implied 40% scoring probability, history suggests better odds: Worthy found the end zone in half of his games last season. Positive regression could be due.
Brashard Smith (+600)
Andy Reid has a history of drawing up creative plays for young, explosive players. Smith saw seven touches last week and could again be used in gadget plays near the goal line, offering long-shot appeal at +600.
Travis Etienne (+100)
Now the clear lead back in Jacksonville, Etienne has scored in three straight games and handles the bulk of red-zone work (14 touches so far). Even-money odds underrate his scoring consistency.
Brenton Strange (+320)
With Jacksonville mixing up its red-zone targets, Strange could sneak into the scoring column. The Jaguars have already found success using tight ends in short-yardage situations.
This matchup could shape how both teams are viewed by bettors for the rest of the season. Kansas City is trying to prove its early stumbles were a blip, while Jacksonville aims to show its strong start is sustainable. The numbers suggest the Jags’ profile is closer to that of a contender than a pretender — and catching more than a field goal at home looks like the smart side for Week 5.
Best bet: Jaguars +3.5
Prop picks: Hunt under 8.5 rush attempts, Worthy over 58.5 total yards, Hunter over 28.5 total yards
