Thursday Night Football: NFL prediction
The NFC West takes the spotlight on Thursday Night Football as the Seattle Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Oddsmakers opened with Arizona as the slight favorite, but line movement has flipped that script — the Seahawks now enter as 1 to 1.5-point favorites across most sportsbooks.
With both teams sitting at 2–1 and dealing with injury concerns, bettors have been quick to back Seattle, making them the consensus pick in this divisional matchup.
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Seattle has been strong on both sides of the ball early this season, ranking sixth in offensive DVOA and fifth in defensive DVOA despite facing playoff-caliber opponents in San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Arizona, meanwhile, sits 19th in offensive DVOA and 13th on defense, with their wins coming against less imposing teams.
With injuries mounting — especially with Cardinals RB James Conner ruled out — the Seahawks’ balanced attack looks better equipped to edge out a road win.
The market shift from +1.5 underdogs to -1.5 favorites makes the Seahawks’ moneyline a safer play than the spread, avoiding the risk of a push. Seattle’s efficiency metrics and the expected return of RB Zach Charbonnet strengthen their case.
Bet365’s -115 ML price provides better value than DraftKings (-122), with FanDuel and BetMGM close behind at -116.
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Rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has quickly emerged as one of the NFL’s top wideouts, averaging over 100 yards per game across three weeks. He enters TNF with 323 total yards, just shy of league leader Puka Nacua.
The Cardinals’ secondary, ranked seventh-worst against wide receivers, has been leaky, allowing 164.7 yards per game to the position. BetMGM’s lower receiving line (80.5) offers better value than other books posting 83.5.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -1.5 (-105) | -116 | O43.5 (-105) |
| Cardinals | +1.5 (-115) | -102 | U43.5 (-115) |
Seattle flipped from underdog to favorite by midweek, reflecting strong market confidence. A further move toward -2 Seahawks is possible if late money continues to back them.
| Stat | Seahawks (2–1) | Cardinals (2–1) |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 29.3 | 20.7 |
| Points allowed | 15.7 | 17.0 |
| Passing yards | 219 | 165 |
| Rushing yards | 96 | 111.3 |
| Yards allowed (pass) | 221.7 | 264.3 |
Seattle’s defensive edge against the pass may prove decisive, especially with Arizona missing key playmakers.
The Seahawks have impressed against stronger opposition and now find themselves favored on the road. With Arizona missing Conner and struggling in the secondary, Seattle’s moneyline and Smith-Njigba’s yardage prop stand out as the smartest plays for TNF bettors.
The Seahawks have dominated Arizona recently, with seven straight victories, five of them by double digits. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been highly reliable for bettors as well, boasting a 65% ATS record (17-9-1) since 2022. His passing line is set at 223.5 yards for Thursday.
Under new head coach Mike Macdonald, Seattle has thrived both offensively and defensively. They rank in the top five for scoring on both sides of the ball and remain the only NFL team yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. With RB James Conner sidelined for Arizona, the ground matchup tilts further in Seattle’s favor.
The Cardinals may have lost to the 49ers last week, but they did manage to cover the spread and have now gone 10-4 ATS across their last 14 games. Defensive improvement has been the story under Jonathan Gannon. Arizona was near the bottom of the league in 2023 but has climbed to fifth in scoring defense this season, also ranking top five in run defense, third-down efficiency, and red-zone stops.
With Conner unavailable, Trey Benson steps into a bigger role. The second-year back is averaging 6.0 yards per carry, second-best in the NFL, while quarterback Kyler Murray has been effective on the ground as well at 5.4 yards per rush. Add in a + turnover margin, and Arizona has the tools to frustrate Seattle.
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