UFC betting explained: Moneyline, method of victory, and round props

UFC betting: Mixed martial arts (MMA) has exploded in popularity over the past decade, with the UFC leading the charge as the sport’s premier organisation. Alongside the growth of the sport, betting on UFC fights has also become mainstream in the United States, especially after the legalisation of online sports betting in many states. Fight nights now attract millions of viewers, and sportsbooks offer dozens of markets that go beyond simply picking who wins.

For new bettors, UFC betting can look complicated at first glance. Terms like “moneyline,” “method of victory,” and “round props” can be confusing if you’ve never placed a fight wager before. But once you understand the basics, UFC betting opens up a wide range of opportunities to profit while adding extra excitement to every punch, kick, and takedown.

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In this guide, we’ll break down the most popular UFC betting markets—explaining how they work, what to look for, and the strategies that experienced bettors use.

What is UFC moneyline betting?

The moneyline is the simplest and most common UFC betting market. You are simply betting on which fighter will win the fight, no matter how they do it.

• Example:
  • Jon Jones -200 (favourite)
  • Stipe Miocic +170 (underdog)

If you back Jones at -200, you need to risk $200 to win $100. If you back Miocic at +170, a $100 bet would return $170 in profit if he wins.

Moneyline betting is popular because it doesn’t matter whether the fight ends in a knockout, submission, or decision, as long as your fighter gets the win, you cash your bet.

Method of victory betting

The method of victory market lets you bet not just on who wins, but how they win. Sportsbooks usually offer three main options for each fighter:

1. By KO/TKO – The fight ends due to a knockout or referee stoppage.
2. By submission – The opponent taps out or is forced to quit.
3. By decision – The fight goes the distance, and judges award the winner.

• Example:
  • Jon Jones to win by submission +300
  • Jon Jones to win by decision +150
  • Stipe Miocic to win by KO/TKO +250

These bets often have higher odds than the moneyline because they require you to predict the exact outcome. Sharp bettors use fighter styles, past records, and matchup analysis to find value in this market.

Round props in UFC betting

Round props allow you to bet on when a fight will end. This can be in the form of:

• Exact round – Predicting the fight will finish in Round 1, Round 2, etc.
• Over/under rounds – Betting on whether the fight will last longer or shorter than a set number of rounds.
• Fight to go the distance – Betting yes or no on whether the fight reaches the judges’ scorecards.
• Example:
  • Fight to end in Round 1 +400
  • Over 2.5 rounds -150
  • Fight to go the distance: Yes +120 / No -140

Round props are especially popular in heavyweight fights, where knockouts are common, and in mismatched bouts where a quick finish is likely.

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Tips for betting on UFC fights

• Study fighter styles – Strikers tend to win by KO/TKO, grapplers by submission, and well-rounded fighters often grind out decisions.
• Look at cardio and endurance – Some fighters start strong but fade in later rounds, which can impact round prop bets.
• Factor in fight history – Previous outcomes, injury lay-offs, and weight class changes can all affect betting markets.
• Shop for odds – Different sportsbooks may post slightly different odds. Shopping around can maximise your potential payout.

FAQs on UFC betting

1. What is the safest bet in UFC?
Moneyline bets are generally the simplest and safest option, but “fight to go the distance” can also be less risky depending on the fighters.

2. Can you bet on both fighters in UFC?
Yes, but betting on both fighters usually cancels out your profit unless you are hedging or taking advantage of odds differences.

3. What happens if a UFC fight ends in a draw?
If you bet the moneyline, most sportsbooks treat a draw as a “push” and refund your bet unless a “draw” option was specifically available.

4. Are live bets available for UFC?
Yes. Many US sportsbooks offer live betting, letting you place wagers as the fight unfolds.

5. Do UFC betting odds change before a fight?
Absolutely. Odds often move in the days leading up to a fight due to betting volume, injuries, or weigh-in performances.